How to use mathematics to beat the bookies?
Beating bookies in betting sounds awkward, but it is possible through properly calculated maths. The basics you need to understand first are the pricing the bookmakers make, the wisdom of the crowd principle, and does the bookie close winning accounts. The greatest principle of betting is not when you think you can win, but when the probability of you winning is higher than that of the odds placed by the bookmakers. The odds establish can give you a good idea of what is likely to happen in an individual event.
How to beat the bookies
Bookmakers calculate their odds to guarantee 5% of the odds placed. If you have the best available odds placed the margin may drop to 1.5% this percentage may go lower in bigger matches.
The rule of the thumb is to understand the relationship between odds and probabilities.
What are the chances of Chelsea winning a game where the bet has been placed at 5 pounds?
In this case, the bookmakers thinks odds placed at 5/7 the probability of Chelsea winning is less than 7/(5+7) which equals to 58.7%. The maths translates that the number likely to win divided by the total number of outcomes. Therefore, in probability, if you think the chance of Chelsea winning is 60% your bet on 5/7 is correct.
In a sporting event, there is always the winning and losing side. Betting judges will use their odds to determine who wins on certain bets. The results of the outcome are not known before the game, but bettors do provide a proper assessment of the probable outcome.
The bookies have an advantage in a popular sport where there is a large crowd placing bets. Their diverse opinion will enlighten them, and their odds will be accurate.
Each bet depends on the popularity of a game. In this instance Arsenal vs. West Brom at a bet of 2.15, the probability is 44% outcome.
However, the market price can be 2.33 with a return of 1.035 or +3.5% profit (2.33/2.25).